Can data predict the UK election?

An online tool for the 2015 General Election that used polling data to predict the probabilities of different coalitions and analysed the policy implications.

The project

We were asked to create a tool to help businesses prepare for a mix of electoral outcomes and get information on the stances of the possible coalition options.

We used data visualisation to show how the potential coalition parties aligned on key issues and the importance of these issues to each party.  

There was a free version of the tool online, but also the option for businesses to commission a tailored version with bespoke analysis and priorities.

The Process

We worked closely with Hanover Communications and Populus - who designed a polling algorithm - to show a unique set of predictions for the tool. The data was updated weekly with new polling data for the algorithm to make sure the tool kept up with the fast-moving pace of the election.

The finished product – Sentio – is an online dashboard that uses projected vote shares for each party to model probabilities for a variety of potential government outcomes. The interactive tool was used by multiple businesses and was featured in the Financial Times.